The geopolitical dynamics in Southeast Asia following the COVID-19 pandemic have experienced significant changes due to various factors, including increased tensions between major powers, shifts in the foreign policies of ASEAN member countries, and profound socio-economic impacts. With more than 650 million inhabitants and a growing economy, the region plays an important role on the global geopolitical map. One of the main impacts of the pandemic is the increased dependence of Southeast Asian countries on China. In response to the health crisis, Beijing launched a vaccine diplomacy initiative that assisted countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines in obtaining COVID-19 vaccines. This strengthens China’s influence in the region, but also raises concerns among neighboring countries about too much dominance. On the other hand, the United States is trying to strengthen its presence in Southeast Asia. Through its new Indo-Pacific strategy, Washington seeks to build stronger alliances with ASEAN countries and respond to China’s expansion. High-level meetings, such as the US-ASEAN Summit, demonstrate Washington’s commitment to supporting stability and security in the region. Nevertheless, countries in Southeast Asia face complex internal challenges, including political instability and maritime security issues. In Myanmar, the military coup that occurred in early 2021 has created significant tensions, while the Philippines and Vietnam also face challenges from China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. This issue takes center stage at ASEAN meetings, where the principle of non-intervention is often put to the test. Changes in the foreign policies of ASEAN countries signal that the region is increasingly seeking to take proactive steps in international affairs. Countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia are showing interest in strengthening their positions in global forums, seeking to act as mediators in the existing tensions. From an economic perspective, post-pandemic recovery also opens up opportunities for closer cooperation in the trade and investment sectors. The Comprehensive Regional Free Trade Agreement (RCEP) is one of the initiatives that connects Southeast Asian countries with their trading partners, including China and Japan, to facilitate more efficient trade. Climate change is also an increasingly important civic issue. Regional countries are seeking to adopt sustainable practices in development, while international cooperation is crucial to face this challenge. Green investment from foreign countries such as Japan and South Korea is also increasingly in demand. Lastly, with the increasing use of digital technology and innovation, the region requires a strategic response to cyber threats and the impact of digitalization. Cybersecurity is emerging as an important concern, with many countries investing in digital infrastructure to increase resilience to attacks. Facing these challenges and opportunities, Southeast Asia is seeking to strike a balance between major influences such as China and the United States, while maintaining the identity and sovereignty of each country. Open dialogue and strong cooperation among ASEAN countries and with international partners are key to shaping the region’s geopolitical future.
About the Author
